Polymarket Puts 30% on Iran Deal Even as US Threatens Nuclear Strike — What the Prediction Market Misses
Parsing the entropy in geopolitical prediction markets. On May 20, 2024,...
DeFi
•
0xBen
•
2026-07-24
#market inefficiency
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Market Prices
BTC
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-0.24%
ETH
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SOL
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BNB Chain
$576.2
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XRP
XRP Ledger
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DOGE
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-1.05%
ADA
Cardano
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+3.98%
AVAX
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$6.2
-3.35%
DOT
Polkadot
$0.7809
+2.60%
LINK
Chainlink
$8.08
-1.14%
Fear & Greed
27
Fear
Market Sentiment
Event Calendar
202612
05
halving
BCH Halving
Block reward halving event
30
04
upgrade
Celestia Mainnet Upgrade
Improves data availability sampling efficiency
15
04
halving
Bitcoin Halving
Block reward reduced to 3.125 BTC
08
04
upgrade
Solana Firedancer
Independent validator client goes live on mainnet
10
05
upgrade
Ethereum Pectra Upgrade
Raises validator limit and account abstraction
18
03
unlock
Sui Token Unlock
Team and early investor shares released
28
03
unlock
Arbitrum Token Unlock
92 million ARB released
22
03
unlock
Optimism Unlock
Circulating supply increases by about 2%
Market Cap
All →
1
Bitcoin
BTC
$62,853.8
1
Ethereum
ETH
$1,848.77
1
Solana
SOL
$71.97
1
BNB Chain
BNB
$576.2
1
XRP Ledger
XRP
$1.06
1
Dogecoin
DOGE
$0.0691
1
Cardano
ADA
$0.1750
1
Avalanche
AVAX
$6.2
1
Polkadot
DOT
$0.7809
1
Chainlink
LINK
$8.08
Trending
Tools
All →Altseason Index
44
Bitcoin Season
BTC Dominance
Altseason
Gas Tracker
Ethereum
28 Gwei
BNB Chain
3 Gwei
Polygon
42 Gwei
Arbitrum
0.5 Gwei
Optimism
0.3 Gwei
🐋 Whale Tracker
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0xb108...2cca
2m ago
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35,582 SOL
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0x05e8...d71b
1h ago
Stake
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🔵
0x3177...e6dd
1h ago
Stake
1,714.87 BTC
💡 Smart Money
0x44a9...6cf4
Institutional Custody
+$4.3M
71%
0xe1f8...8f02
Top DeFi Miner
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69%
0xc941...4581
Arbitrage Bot
+$3.5M
78%