The 30.5% Illusion: Why Polymarket’s Iran-War Odds Are the Real Trade
Polymarket says there’s a 30.5% chance of US-Iran nuclear agreement by 2026....
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Polymarket says there’s a 30.5% chance of US-Iran nuclear agreement by 2026....
Fear
Market Sentiment
Improves data availability sampling efficiency
92 million ARB released
Independent validator client goes live on mainnet
Raises validator limit and account abstraction
Team and early investor shares released
Block reward halving event
Block reward reduced to 3.125 BTC
Circulating supply increases by about 2%
Bitcoin Season